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Forecast

New England could still see some remnants of Ian’s rain this week

A view of Boston from the north, with rain coming down during a storm.David L. Ryan/Globe Staff

When I was an intern back in high school we would get one model run every 12 hours. The forecast didn’t change as frequently because there were fewer data points to evaluate. Fast forward several decades and now we have so much information at our fingertips it can be tempting to move the forecast with each new bit of information. This is one of the reasons that the app you use can show rain one moment and sunshine a few hours later.

In the big picture, the remnants of Ian continue to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Bright sunshine was poised across northern New England Monday afternoon.COD weather

The radar out of New York City on Monday showed quite a bit of rainfall south of Long Island. In Southern New England, a battle between the drier north and the moist air to the south is taking place.

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Bands of heavy rain were pushing west, as the remnants of Ian remain south of New England.COD wea

With the onshore flow, it remains chilly as temperatures struggle to get out of the 50s. These patterns can be hard for the models we use to discern. Specifically, how far north is the rain going to move during Wednesday into early Thursday. The trend has been more precipitation in the middle of the week, but this is far from a confident forecast.

The latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model brings some steady rain to southern New England later Wednesday.NOAA

Boston is below average in terms of rainfall, and the dry pattern has been more powerful than a wet one. Although it’s cooler, New England is still in a drought and could really use a significant soaking rain. Personally, I’m hoping we can get this weather system further north to really give us a midweek wash out.

It looks like whatever happens and however much rain we see, it will move east on Thursday leaving us with warmer conditions. Temperatures will return to the 60s, to even near 70, on Thursday, and into the low perhaps even mid-70s on Friday. This is some of the mildest air we’ve seen in a while — and will be accompanied by lots of sunshine.

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This map shows warm temperatures Thursday across the eastern US. Many areas even in Maine will be near 70 Thursday afternoon.TropicalTidbits

It turns much chillier for for the upcoming weekend. I’m not ready to commit to a full frost for all of us yet, but I am focusing on the chance for some frost Sunday morning, especially over the interior areas. I don’t think I will see anything along the coastline. This is about average in terms of when the first frost would occur west of Route 128. If you are planning on traveling this weekend, you might want to bring in any tender vegetation before you leave.

More on the potential for the cold in the coming days.

If you look closely, you can note on average the first freeze doesn’t occur in Boston until November.TropicalTidbits