Susan Collins first ran for the United States Senate in 1996. During that campaign, she promised that she would serve only two terms. “Twelve years is long enough to be in public service, make a contribution, and then come home and let someone else take your place,” she said.
The Republican went on to serve two terms, and three more after that. During that time, she became one of the most powerful senators in the country — and one of the most unbeatable ones too. Even as Democrats targeted her in election after election, exploiting her vulnerability as a conservative in a part of the country that has been slowly marching leftward, Collins kept winning. It was almost as if she had a superpower. In 2020, when she was running for a fifth term, every single poll had her down going into Election Day, but she still managed to come out on top. After that, it seemed as if she could keep her Senate seat for life.
That changed on Tuesday, when Troy Jackson, a former logger and president of the state Senate, defeated her by a comfortable margin. It was a stunning turn of events — not just for Collins but for Republicans across the region. In 2010, there were four Republican senators from New England. Come January, there will be none.
In many ways, Collins fit the classic mold of the New England Republican — a moderate politician with more liberal social views than the national party. She was, for example, one of the few Republicans who called herself pro-choice, and she didn’t always fall in line with President Trump, voting to convict him in his second impeachment trial in 2021. That’s why her loss on Tuesday was so significant: It marked the end of a slow death for the GOP in New England.
The GOP’s near total collapse
The truth is that Collins’s Senate career was living on borrowed time, because New England Republicans had long been drifting toward extinction. Yes, Massachusetts elected Republican governors like Bill Weld, Mitt Romney, and Charlie Baker in the not-so-distant past. But over the course of the Trump era, that kind of politics has become increasingly untenable.
In fact, no strategy seems to be working for the GOP in New England. If they nominate Trumpy candidates, they are virtually guaranteed to lose. In the last two gubernatorial races in Massachusetts, Democratic Governor Maura Healey trounced her Trump-friendly Republican opponents, neither of whom could get even 35 percent of the vote.
But nominating more-moderate candidates doesn’t seem to be working either. John Deaton, the Republican candidate for Senate in Massachusetts, framed himself as an anti-Trump Republican but still lost by double digits — both in this cycle against Senator Ed Markey and in 2024, when he ran against Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Elsewhere in New England, it was a similar story.
In New Hampshire, the Republican candidate for Senate, former senator John E. Sununu, lost to the Democrat, Chris Pappas. Sununu positioned himself as a commonsense Republican who’s independent-minded — someone who would support Trump’s policies when they’re in the interest of New Hampshire and stand up to him when they’re not — and he still lost by double digits. In Connecticut, Democratic Governor Ned Lamont cruised to a third term. His Republican opponent, state Senator Ryan Fazio, tried to convince voters that he’s independent and can criticize the Trump administration, but he lost by nearly 20 percentage points. In Rhode Island’s governor’s race, Republicans only managed to get 13 percent of the vote while an independent candidate got 28 percent. And then there was Collins’s loss in Maine.
Democrats also beat Republicans in every single House race across New England except Maine’s second congressional district, which as of this writing is still too close to call.
It’s fair to say that the Republican Party has completely collapsed across New England. Even the very few bright spots they had Tuesday night were nothing more than flickering lights. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican governor of New Hampshire, won a second two-year term by just about 5 points despite having a massive fundraising advantage over her opponent. That’s not to mention that historical trends heavily favored Ayotte: The last time a New Hampshire governor lost reelection after serving just one term was in 2004; the time before that was in 1924.
The GOP’s path to success in New England, in other words, is getting sealed off — fast.
Can Republicans make a comeback?
Trump’s two presidencies have been giant wrecking balls for the New England GOP, and it’s unlikely that Republicans can rebuild a solid party infrastructure in the region anytime soon. But they would at least have a shot at a modest comeback if they made a radical break with the national GOP. Until now, that kind of break has been hard to imagine — so firm has Trump’s grip on the party been. But now that the president’s grip is slipping, it’s possible to envision candidates who offer sharp rebukes of Trump and Trumpism and run on platforms that are much more liberal than the average Republican’s — platforms that will play in a place like New England.
One example that Republicans can look to is Phil Scott, the Republican governor of Vermont who just secured his sixth term. Scott is perhaps the only prominent liberal Republican politician left in New England. Unlike former Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, who hemmed and hawed over Trump — saying he left his ballot blank in 2020 — Scott was vocal about his votes for Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024, making clear his rejection of Trump and that kind of politics.
Scott is also clearly to the left of his party on most social issues. He’s solidly in support of abortion rights, signing a sweeping abortion rights protection bill into law in 2019. He’s supportive of LGBTQ rights, having signed a bill that requires gender-neutral bathrooms in public spaces: “Vermont has a well-earned reputation for embracing equality and being inclusive,” he said at the time. Scott has also been critical of Trump’s immigration policies and declined the administration’s request to send the state’s National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., in 2025.
This is the kind of Republican who can repeatedly win in a state that Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, has represented in Congress since 1991.
It’s unlikely, though, that Republicans will nominate more Phil Scotts. As the national GOP has shifted further and further to the right, so too have state Republican parties across New England. But if they want to have a shot at winning again, they ought to reconsider who they’re nominating for major statewide races. Indeed, if Democrats found candidates who could win in places like Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska, then Republicans could one day do the same in Maine, New Hampshire, and maybe even Massachusetts.
Until then, the party’s over for the New England GOP. Collins ended her political career on Tuesday night by leaving her watch party without making a concession speech. There was no curtain call, no big goodbyes. It was just lights out. And it looks like they may not come on again for some time.
Abdallah Fayyad can be reached at abdallah.fayyad@globe.com. Follow him @abdallah_fayyad.